Thursday, July 24, 2008

Quote of the day

I think if I were truly evil, I would have to demand that all of my acolytes be celibate, but would turn a blind eye to any sexual depravities they might commit. If I wanted to be an evil hypocrite, I'd drape myself in expensive jeweled robes and live in an ornate palace while telling all my followers that poverty is a virtue. If I wanted to commit world-class evil, I'd undermine efforts at family planning by the poor, especially if I could simultaneously enable the spread of deadly diseases. And if I wanted to be so evil that I would commit a devastating crime against the whole of the human race, twisting the minds of children into ignorance and hatred, I would be promoting the indoctrination of religion in children's upbringing, and fomenting hatred against anyone who dared speak out in defiance.

300th post!

Well. What a landmark. Of sorts. Not sure what it means.

Rather like many of my posts, no doubt...

Not-feeling-the-love dept.

A London Times columnist on the Obama phenomenon:

In the great Battles of Caucus and Primary he smote the conniving Hillary, wife of the deposed King Bill the Priapic and their barbarian hordes of Working Class Whites.

And so it was, in the fullness of time, before the harvest month of the appointed year, the Child ventured forth - for the first time - to bring the light unto all the world.

Not-McCain's-Week Dept.

The political gods are not smiling on the McCain campaign, which had to cancel a campaign event including an oil-rig photo op... because of a nearby oil spill.

Savor the delicious taste of irony.

Give them enough rope...

Elaine Donnelly finally gets her big chance and testifies to Congress about how teh gayz will destroy the military. With no qualifications as a military expert or an expert on human sexuality, she still had plenty to tell the Congresscritters. And she did. And thus helped set back her own cause.

A double standard? Say it ain't so!

Some speculation on why the media isn't all over the Edwards-has-a-love-child-maybe-kinda-sorta story. Double standard? Duh. Of course.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Quote of the day

Maybe [Rick Warren] is representative of the country, though…superficially earnest and well meaning, with a seething core of stupid that means we'll do horrible things in spite of good intentions.


Violently Enforcing Stereotypes to Sell Candy Bars

M&M/Mars does it again, with a reekingly homophobic ad that suggests violence against insufficiently manly men is just lots of laffs.

It's not like I bought that much of their stuff to begin with... but they're off my grocery list for good. As is Heinz, who makes condiments for straight people.

Yes, they're free to sell their junk any way they want to. And I'm free to buy their competitor's products. Being part of their target demographic isn't exactly an aspiration for me.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Exposing abuses

An important article up at Salon about some of the Bush Regime's misconduct. A frustrating number of anonymous sources, but perhaps that's inevitable.

Go read it.

Quote of the day

To rebel against a powerful political, economic, religious, or social establishment is very dangerous and very few people do it, except, perhaps, as part of a mob. To rebel against the "scientific" establishment, however, is the easiest thing in the world, and anyone can do it and feel enormously brave, without risking as much as a hangnail. Thus, the vast majority, who believe in astrology and think that the planets have nothing better to do than form a code that will tell them whether tomorrow is a good day to close a business deal or not, become all the more excited and enthusiastic about the bilge when a group of astronomers denounces it.

--Isaac Asimov

The Dark Knight

It's dark. It's gloomy. It's filled with action. The plot had a couple of holes. It was, in places, unbearably pretentious as it hit the audience over the head--repeatedly--with its Serious Message.

It was, in short, a Batman comic on the big screen.

And since everyone's raving about Heath Ledger's performance: I agree with the BBC reviewer. It's very good; you see the madness, and the anguish behind the madness. A good actor who left us too soon. But at the end of the day, he's playing an iconic over-the-top villain, in clown makeup, in a superhero movie. He's doing it very well, mind you... But any posthumous Oscar will be because he died, not because of his performance.

And I didn't quite get the point of one reviewer who said it looked too much like Chicago, not enough like Gotham. Having seen the movie... I get it. And I agree. Not nearly gritty or claustrophobic enough for Gotham.

Playing the game

It's hardly an original observation that in America, a presidential candidate must at least appear to be religious. There are discussions about church activity, meetings with prominent clergy, etc.

Details of that faith, at least within certain bounds, are less important. Joe Lieberman is an Orthodox Jew. Most voters don't know or care John McCain's denomination, whether their Senator is Methodist or Episcopalian, etc. There are some limits--JFK's Catholicism was seen as a problem to be managed, though Kerry's wasn't. However, the persistence of the "Obama is really a Muslim" canard--and make no mistake, it's meant as a canard--shows we still have a way to go.

But at least no one's hinting that he's actually a closet atheist. That, for Americans, would be beyond the pale. A sixth of the country describes themselves as atheist or agnostic, and yet no politician can be seen acknowledging them, let alone sitting down and talking with them. A candidate who admitted to having reservations about the whole God question, let alone one who said flat out he didn't believe in any supernatural deity, benevolent or otherwise, wouldn't make it onto the primary ballot, let alone to the election.

A column in today's Times reminds us that it wasn't always this way. During an age we think of as being very religious, there were prominent humanists who were listened to and taken seriously, and their endorsements were actively sought.

Of course, that was an age intoxicated with the idea of throwing off the ideology of the past, rather than clinging to the idea that only the magic sky-fairy can protect us from the Brown Menace.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Spoke Too Soon Dept.

It seems Phil Gramm may be hanging around the McCain campaign after all.

And the Crony Express rides on...

Is this really the best they can do?

Salon has an interview up with James Carse, discussing religion as poetry, its continuing hold on human imagination, etc. But as for the basic question of why should one believe, he gets a little vague. His take on atheism is one of the most succinct expressions of the Courtier's Reply I've ever come across:

Are you talking about atheists like Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris?

Yes. There are several problems with their approach. It has an inadequate understanding of the nature of religion. These chaps are very distinguished thinkers and scientists, very smart people, but they are not historians or scholars of religion. Therefore, it's too easy for them to pass off a quick notion of what religion is....To be an atheist, you have to be very clear about what god you're not believing in. Therefore, if you don't have a deep and well-developed understanding of God and divine reality, you can misfire on atheism very easily.

Translation: there are entire colleges dedicated to studying the Emperor's boots, and shelves full of doctoral dissertations on the fineness of the plumage in the Emperor's hats! To therefore blandly say that the Emperor has no clothes reveals vast ignorance of all of this fine scholarship!

Apparently Carse is unfamiliar with universal quantifiers, as in, I don't necessarily believe any of it. Having complete floor plans and blueprints for castles in the sky doesn't mean those castles actually exist.

What makes it particularly silly is that Carse had just finished explaining that defining what it is you believe in, that is, defining God, is ultimately impossible. So, it's impossible, but atheists have to do it before they can say what it is they don't believe in.

And this line is particularly laughable:

To be an atheist is not to be stunned by the mystery of things or to walk around in wonder about the universe.

I've stood staring up at the night sky on clear July nights when the nearest streetlight was five miles away. I've gasped in awe at the Grand Canyon and the Colorado Rockies, and gazed into the eyes of my week-old niece and, years later, my great-niece. I've been stunned by the vistas of astronomy and marveled at the intricate precision of mathematics and biology. "Stunned by the mystery of things" and "in wonder about the universe" would both apply.

And yet, I don't feel the need to invoke any supernatural beings to legitimize any of that. Do I therefore, according to Carse, not exist? Once again, the old canard that we can have no sense of wonder without a magic sky-fairy, and that athiests are blinkered, gloomy souls. I can't help wondering if it's projection.

Addendum/Update: It looks like some of the letter-writers are noticing the same logical problems...

Really, I'd expected better from Carse. His Finite and Infinite Games was rather good.

P.P.S.: A letter-writer to Andrew Sullivan nails this as well.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Good riddance dept.

Enron millionaire, Swiss bank executive, and soft-core porn investor Phil Gramm has resigned from the McCain campaign. This is the second of two national co-chairs for the campaign that have stepped down in some kind of scandal.

But a campaign in chaos doesn't say anything about McCain's executive ability as President. He was a POW, and that's all we need to know.

The Stupid, It Burns

I was busy yesterday and didn't comment on the ignoramus in Oklahoma who put out a crudely-drawn, highly-bigoted, unintentionally hilarious comic book about how he's on the side of the angels (literally) and anyone opposing him is Satanic.

However, the story has now gone (as Princess Sparkle Pony so perfectly expressed it), "magnificently viral." She's got a roundup of reaction links.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Happy Birthday, 3 days late

I just realized... last Tuesday marked one year since this blog's first post (helpfully entitled, "First post"). Though the first substantive post was this one. Where has the time gone? I find myself agreeing with Calvin: Here I am in the future, and it looks a lot like that past. Where are the flying cars? The jetpacks? The personal robot servants?

Quote of the day

Some H. L. Mencken:

"Even a superstitious man has certain inalienable rights. He has a right to harbor and indulge his imbecilities as long as he please, provided only he does not try and inflict them upon other men by force. He has a right to argue for them as eloquently as he can, in season and out of season. He has a right to teach them to his children. But certainly he has no right to be protected against the free criticism of those who do not hold them. He has no right to demand that they be treated as sacred. He has no right to preach them without challenge."

Thursday, July 17, 2008

She gets it

I've tweaked Gail Collins a time or two in this space. Her columns, while usually pleasant to read, are occasionally wildly misinformed or risibly Manhattan-centric.

On the other hand, today's column on gay marriage is a gem. Money quote:

It is very possible that we’ll be having a number of depressing discussions about gay rights over the next several months. Just this week we learned that California is going to have a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would bar same-sex marriages. And John McCain was unable to come up with a clear position on whether gays should be allowed to adopt.

But the forces of history are only on one side here. There’s going to be a long-term happy ending.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Media Watch Edition, Day 4

FINALLY, the Washington Post deigns to notice.

Every time I think I'm becoming jaded and cynical, I realize my real problem is that I'm still not jaded and cynical enough.

Abolishing "Darwinism"

Olivia Judson has a very good entry on how much the field of biology has changed since Darwin's day, how much he got right, and how his few simple ideas have turned out to have so much explanatory power.

And she correctly notes that the term Darwinism to refer to all this implies something that simply isn't true:

I’d like to abolish the insidious terms Darwinism, Darwinist and Darwinian. They suggest a false narrowness to the field of modern evolutionary biology, as though it was the brainchild of a single person 150 years ago, rather than a vast, complex and evolving subject to which many other great figures have contributed. (The science would be in a sorry state if one man 150 years ago had, in fact, discovered everything there was to say.) Obsessively focusing on Darwin, perpetually asking whether he was right about this or that, implies that the discovery of something he didn’t think of or know about somehow undermines or threatens the whole enterprise of evolutionary biology today.
And she's absolutely correct, of course. Her concluding paragraph, pointing out that we don't call aeronautical engineering Wrightism, is very good.

My own observation, for what it's worth. Those most likely to use the term Darwinism seem to be creationists of various ilks, looking for a convenient tag to cover evolutionary biology, genetics, and whatever else they're worked up about that day. It also seems to be a symptom of the religionist mindset: Truth is something eternal, that is revealed by prophets. Therefore, if someone believes incorrectly, they must have been led astray by a false prophet. Obviously, the false prophet must be discredited. Therefore the assault on Darwinism.

Of course, in science, truth is contingent, peer-reviewed, and evidence-based. It turns out Darwin was wrong about some specific examples, and he didn't know enough about genetics to understand how traits could be inherited. (No one knew enough about genetics at the time, the basic principles were still being worked out and the existence and role of DNA wasn't even suspected.) Do Darwin's mistakes mean the entire edifice comes crumbling down? Not at all! Gaps are filled in, mistakes corrected, and the science moves on. Indeed, if it turned out that every one of Darwin's examples was wrong (they weren't, but suppose for argument), evolutionary biology would continue just fine.

By casting it as "Darwinism vs Christianity," as though both are religions, the creationists attempt to frame the debate in a method most likely to appeal to their supporters, and reveal the biases of their own thinking. (Is my thinking biased? Undoubtedly. But I maintain that a bias in favor of testing against evidence leads to better results than a bias in favor of listening to self-proclaimed prophets.)

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Predictable Reactions Dept.

Slate insists the New Yorker cover is no big deal.

Tell that to the WingNutDaily readers.

Late update: Jon Swift weighs in.

And still no sign that I can see of the GOP access-for-dollars story in the corporate media.

Monday, July 14, 2008

This resonated a bit too much for comfort...

I am NOT having a midlife crisis!

But he's right... I've wanted a convertible since I was about 8... I may be able to afford one my next car (if I can afford the gas). If I buy a car I've wanted for over 30 years, is it a midlife crisis if I can finally afford it? "Losing a few pounds" used to mean skipping desserts and going easy on the fried stuff for a few days; now it takes a bit more effort. So if I try to do something to stay healthy and looking reasonably good (as much as I've ever looked), is it a midlife crisis if it takes more effort than it used to?

If I'd dyed my hair for 20 years, continuing to do so might not mean anything... If I took it up at this stage, it might be different.

Media Watch Update

Nothing in the NY Times, Washington Post, or CNN this morning about the bribes-for-access story.

Has this regime made such an art form of corruption that something like that isn't even news anymore?

Update: Pam's House Blend, AmericaBlog, and (of all places) Princess Sparkle Pony have picked this up. Possibly some others as well; Pam has an update on her site suggesting the blogs are starting to pick up on this. But nothing from the mass media yet.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Media Watch Edition, Part II

God save us from our friends.

I'm stunned. I'm sure I'll have something to say beyond "Yeah, what John said!" at some point, but nothing's coming to mind at the moment. I'm just trying to figure out what on earth they could possibly have been thinking?

And of course, we can count of plenty of "outrage" from the talking heads, with lots of full-screen shots of just what they're so "outraged" about.

Update: Andrew, of course, thinks it's "quite funny."

Media Watch Edition

The London Times is reporting this morning that a fundraiser for the still-in-planning George W. Bush Presidential Library is offering access to senior Administration figures in return for large cash donations.

Stephen Payne, who claims to have raised more than $1m for the president’s Republican party in recent years, said he would arrange meetings with Dick Cheney, the vice-president, Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, and other senior officials in return for a payment of $250,000 (£126,000) towards the library in Texas.

Payne, who has accompanied Bush and Cheney on several foreign trips, also said he would try to secure a meeting with the president himself.

Now I would, of course, be shocked--shocked--to learn that any politician, certainly one as upright as the leader of the squeaky-clean W. administration, would do anything so blatantly favoring the wealthy and well-connected.

Of more interest will be whether the US media picks up on the story at all.

My prediction: It becomes a minor story for one news cycle at most. Odds are better than 50/50 that no domestic sources pick it up at all. I'm willing to be proven wrong, but don't think I will be.

Back where we started

Frank Rich has a must-read op-ed about the degree of damage the Bush Administration has done not only to our moral standing, but to our security. The risk of a major terrorist attack today? About where it was in July 2001.

Go read it.

Friday, July 11, 2008

More sectarian whining

It is one thing to engage in free, if disrespectful, debate. It is another to repeatedly assault and ridicule and abuse something that is deeply sacred to a great many people.

So it's okay to be disrespectful, as long as you don't hurt their feelings. Because the sentiments of the religious, no matter how silly the superstition, are paramount.

To be fair, when reports came out about some jackass in Guantanamo flushing a Koran down the commode, Andrew called them out about that, too. But it was a purely pragmatic argument--this is going to enrage them against us and serves no good purpose--rather than being out of lines because of some general rule that ridiculous ideas can be ridiculed unless they're ridiculous ideas about magic sky-fairies.

Or at least, about his magic sky-fairy.

Update 11:20 PM: I just noticed that apparently some other people called Andrew on this. And, to his credit, he posted the replies.

Update 7/12: He's taken most of it back. Oh, and he now claims he defended Myers' right to say whatever he wishes. Funny, I can't seem to find that in the original post. Here's the full text of what he said:
It is one thing to engage in free, if disrespectful, debate. It is another to repeatedly assault and ridicule and abuse something that is deeply sacred to a great many people. Calling the Holy Eucharist a "goddamned cracker" isn't about free speech; it's really about some baseline civility. Myers' rant is the rant of an anti-Catholic bigot. And atheists and agnostics can be bigots too.

I don't see any defense of Myers' right to anything in there. Really, the posturing on this is incredible. Of course, what set off Myers in the first place was the fact that for stealing a cracker, terms like "hate crime" and "kidnapping" were being tossed around, there's a movement afoot to get the student expelled, death threats were made, and there is now an armed guard at Mass at the campus chapel, to make sure no more cracker-napping occurs. I wonder if Andrew read the entire story in the first place?

Quote of the day

The [Christian] supremacists who lead the anti-gay crusade are wrong morally. They are wrong because justice is moral, and prejudice is evil; because truth is moral and the lie of the closet is the real sin; because the claim of morality is a subtle sort of subterfuge, a strategem which hides the real aim which is much more secular. The supremacists don't care about morality, they care about power. They care about social control.

Urvashi Vaid (April 25, 1993)

[h/t: PZ Myers]


Thursday, July 10, 2008

Short version of Andrew Sullivan

I wasn't wrong, but maybe I wasn't as right as I could have been, and in any event, we've kinda-sorta got something that maybe looks like the rule of law so I'm okay with it. Besides, it's the president's fault, not the companies, that they broke the law--it's not like AT&T or Verizon could afford a lawyer or anything. And it's natural to panic and toss the rule of law overboard when we're in a national panic, which we all were, especially me, so let's just move on.

When the man is right, he's right, but he periodically has episodes of recto-cranial inversion that are mind-boggling in their intensity.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Quote of the day

It's funny how so many defeated Democrats -- Al Gore, John Kerry, John Edwards and now Clinton -- seem to become more progressive after they learn that pandering can't protect them from the attacks of the GOP and its friends in the media. Let's hope Obama doesn't have to learn that lesson the same way.

More reasons why FISA is bad law

There's an excellent summary here of just how much damage the FISA provisions do to the rule of law.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Quote of the day

However, as a practical matter I doubt that conservatism without its accompanying bigotries could ever command a voting majority. The targets of bigotry shift over time: Jews and Catholics, for example, are no longer fashionable hate-objects, and blacks, career women, and gays are becoming less and less so. That's why the Good Lord made Muslims, atheists, and "illegal aliens."

Still a few bugs in the system

It seems the face-recognition technology used to verify the age of cigarette vending-machine users in Japan still has a few bugs.

The facial recognition problem is hard, and trying to use specific features to estimate age for a generic face is even harder. Then ruling out doctored photos, makeup tricks, etc., and it gets exponentially harder.

So kudos for trying, and it's not surprising there are problems. I'm just surprised it's being deployed at this stage.

[H/T: Andrew Sullivan]

The truth shall set you free, indeed...

Go read this. Then laugh.

[H/T: PZ]

Worse odds than you thought

Not only is a state-run lottery a tax on people who don't understand math... the state's cut is even better when there's literally no chance of winning.

Let's see, we have to have the state running the lottery because the private sector will run corrupt, crooked games that prey on the foolish and poorly-educated... While, of course, state-run lotteries are always above board and scrupulously fair.

Riiiight. Tell me another one.

Still stuck in the 50's..

As the Bush Regime's War On Privacy (tm) continues, we're getting the finishing touches on an agreement to exchange large amounts of personal information with European agencies. Or rather, demand that they supply that information to us:

The United States is negotiating deals with European countries to exchange fingerprint and DNA data in criminal and terrorist cases, and in some circumstances to transfer data on race or ethnic origin, political and religious beliefs, or sexual orientation.
. . .
Senior Bush administration officials said the data exchange is crucial for spotting dangerous people before they enter the United States and for furthering criminal and terrorist investigations.
[emphasis added in both cases]

Explain to me how sexual orientation is a useful part of a terrorist investigation. Useful for compiling an enemies list and indulging in some good old-fashioned bigotry? Sure, I'll grant you that. But how is it actually useful for, you know, the purpose it's allegedly being gathered for?

But some European lawmakers fear that, taken together, the accords will lead to a far-reaching exchange of personal data without appropriate safeguards and that eventually the United States will seek access to Europe-wide databases. "We seem to be opening the floodgates, left, right and center," said Sophie in't Veld, a European Parliament member from the Netherlands. "It seems to me there are hardly any restrictions left."
No kidding.

[A DHS official] said the United States has agreed to limit the purpose for which the data are sought, not to share it with other governments and not to retain data if they are no longer useful -- if there is no match on a fingerprint, for instance. He said errors in records will be corrected.

But Schaar, who is independent from the government, said he found no "clear rules on purpose limitation" or on the storage period. "First," he said, "which data are of concern is not really completely clear. Second, who are the competent authorities on the U.S. side? Third, and most important, there is a lack of independent supervision in the United States over data protection." In European states, independent privacy commissions safeguard the privacy rights of citizens, he said.

Exactly. The gummint promises they won't ever misuse any of this data and they'll get rid of it as soon as there's no use for it anymore. And they decide when that is, and whether it should be done, and whether or not they're following their own rules, so there's no need for anyone else to know anything about it.

Of course, every time in the past when they've had the authority to go fishing, it's been misused to after political opponents and people engaging in unpopular but fully legal political activity. And recently the FBI was trying to recruit people to infiltrate vegan potlucks in Minnesota as a pre-emptive move against radical vegans disrupting the Republican National Convention.

So am I supposed to be reassured that they're gathering all this data, but show several signs of incompetence, so they probably won't be successful at any nefarious misuses?

Still not a theist...

A quick followup to this long-ago post: Being a theist requires believing in several things. Specifically,


  • That God exists;
  • That God is benevolent;
  • That God is able to communicate with us in a way we can perceive;
  • That God is willing to do so;
  • That God has done so;
  • That this communication has included God's preferences regarding our behavior;
  • That we have noticed this communication;
  • That we have understood or interpreted it correctly.
One further thought: Acceptance of any one of those propositions, or all of them up to some specified proposition, implies little to nothing about the truth-value of the next. That is, assuming, for example, that God exists and is benevolent, says nothing about whether it is possible for a (presumably-infinite) being to interact with finite beings in a way they can perceive; whether any such communication has been made; and so on.

Not only are the assumptions very large, the causality connecting them is tenuous at best.

UPDATE: One further assumption should be slid in there: that any communication about preferences for our behavior have been unambiguous and non-contradictory.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Followup on false positives

This post from a few days ago has another implication as well.

Recall that our hypothetical screening system is 95% accurate at detecting terrorists. In our hypothetical population of 1,000 truly dangerous terrorists, we found 950, leaving 50 still at large and passed screening as non-dangerous.

This implies that any act of terror that is carried out will quite possibly, in fact probably, be carried out by someone who was screened, and passed screening. So think about it. Another big incident, and it turns out the perp had been investigated, perhaps asked a few questions, and then let go as not a serious threat.

What happens to the screening procedures when it turns out "someone slipped through"? It gets even more draconian, we lose a few more liberties...and very little additional safety is gained.

Ultimately, the only way to be sure we've locked up all the terrorists is to lock up everybody. But instead of accepting a calculated risk, we've become a nation of cowards who refuse to accept that life has risks, and some risks can only be mitigated, not entirely eliminated.

Contrary to his rhetoric, the President doesn't take an oath to protect American lives or even American interests. He takes an oath to defend the Constitution. Certainly the Framers knew that requiring warrants and due process and trials by jury would hinder the efficiency of the government and probably result in some criminals going free. That's part of the price of liberty. Trying to achieve absolute safety, at the expense of essential liberties, is not only impossible, it's un-American. And remembering that is more important than ever when passions are running high and people are scared.

Blunt but accurate

Christopher Hitchens, as usual, pulls no punches. The outpouring of sentiment over Helms' "legacy," and the tiptoeing around, or blatant ignoring, of how much racism and bigotry that "legacy" includes, is nauseating.

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Missing the point

Newsweek tries to be cutting-edge by suggesting the Internet is the new sweatshop.

They may be teenagers posting videos of themselves dancing like Soulja Boy, programmers messing around with Twitter's tools to create cool new applications or aspiring game developers who want to create the next big thing. But what they all have in common is a somewhat surprising willingness to work for little more than peer recognition and a long shot at 15 seconds of fame.
Because, of course, money is the only possible motivation to do anything. If you're not doing it for money, you're being a rube. The enjoyment of doing it? Of making a contribution? Oh pish tush.
Whether these 21st-century worker bees can be said to be having fun (is it really entertaining to update a Wikipedia entry?), there's no question that their moonlighting has value even if they're not being compensated.
I don't know if "entertaining" is the right word. "Sorry, gang, I won't be tagging along to the party, I'm going to stay home and update Wikipedia" sounds a little unlikely. But it can be rewarding. Making a contribution, even if "just" for peer recognition (and why is that a bad thing?), has its rewards.

It's also possible N'Gai Croal, the author of the piece, is, like most journalists, innumerate. (I don't know, one way or the other.) Consider that the entire Internet-connected population is currently about one billion. What happens if everyone connected to the internet contributes a half-hour per month of their time doing something (making vids, music mixes, game programming, artwork, Wikipedia edits, whatever) of something that ends up on the internet?

That's five hundred million hours--roughly five Wikipedias--every month.

Someone please send Newsweek a copy of Clay Shirky's article on social surplus, and why we're on the verge of another boom.
But as long as so many of you are willing to work for free, the proprietors of these virtual sweatshops will happily accept.
But again, this isn't the point. A half-hour a month, volunteered, is hardly a "sweatshop," no matter how (melo)dramatic an article headline that makes. Yes, there are some who obsessively devote every hour to contribute, just as in the pre-internet age some people obsessed over their bottle-cap collections.

Peer recognition, satisfaction from making a positive contribution, and the pleasures of creating are sufficient motivation. Scaled up, across the internet, enough small contributions add up. And again, Croal fundamentally misunderstands.

Yes, the vast majority of uploaded videos are well below professional quality. Most blogs are barely worth reading. (No comment on whether this one falls within that category.) Sturgeon's Law applies on the internet as well as it does everywhere else. But again, the simple scale of the phenomenon means that the top few percent will be very good.

Newsweek answered its own question as true. In fact, the way they phrased the question shows they don't understand the subject in the first place.

[h/t: Andrew Sullivan]

Friday, July 4, 2008

Privacy and Data Mining, and false positives

James Wimberly has an interesting post up at RBC about the possibility of large-scale data mining as an intelligence-gathering tool, its costs, and benefits. I'm less sanguine about the possibilities of any such large-scale operation than he is, but he's absolutely correct to note that we need to be having this discussion in the open, rather than relying on the "lawless-unitary-executive-knows-best" model that we've been running on so far.

The problem with any such operation is dealing with the false positives, the things the algorithm says are suspicious that turn out to be nothing. Let's say his "third-degree" assumption is roughly accurate and we're targeting about one million people nationwide for data surveillance. Further assume that there are as many as 1,000 truly dangerous terrorist organizers in the US--determined, competent, well-financed. I'm not talking about janitors with fantasies of blowing up airports, I'm talking about people who have figured out how an airport could be sabotaged, and have access to the means to carry it out, and are motivated to do so.

First of all, we note that 1,000 / 1,000,000 = 0.1% of our targets are actually dangerous. The other 999,000 are not dangerous--not motivated, incompetent, don't have the means, whatever.

Now suppose we have a screening method that can detect 95% of the bad guys and screen out 99% of the non-bad-guys. This is, of course, MUCH better than any actual method can do. But run the numbers:

We find 950 out of 1,000 terrorists (true positives), leaving 50 dangerous people at large (false negatives--people we think are harmless, who really aren't).

We also round up 999,000 * 0.01 = 9, 990 people who aren't dangerous but weren't screened out--false positives.

Meaning we round up a total of 9,990 + 950 = 10,940 people, of whom 9,900 (90.49%) aren't dangerous.

This isn't as much of a needle-in-a-haystack problem as we started with, I'll grant. But what happens when we tell investigators to go through a list of people with suspicious data traffic, but to remember most are probably completely innocent?

Well, we know that about 5% of Americans cheat on their taxes. And we know that IRS auditors, who spend all day dealing with tax fraud, estimate that 30% of Americans cheat on their taxes. When you deal with something out of the ordinary all day long, you can forget how out of the ordinary it is. When you deal with tax cheats all day, you tend to overestimate the prevalence of tax cheats.

Good luck getting your investigators going through the list of "data-based suspects" to remember that 90% are probably innocent or harmless, or both.

We can't just sit back and do nothing. But we should also avoid falling into the trap laid out in Yes, Minister:

We must do something.
This is something.
Therefore, we must do this.

Hilzoy gets it

Someone should send Krauthammer this post:

Saying that he will be open to advice and new information, however, is not the same as saying that his fundamental views on Iraq are open to change, absent some genuinely unpredicted and catastrophic development. It's one thing to be open to a somewhat different pace for troop withdrawal, and another thing altogether to change your mind about the wisdom of getting out of Iraq in the first place. But I honestly don't see where Obama got near saying he was open to changing his mind on that score, even before he held the second press conference, at which he explicitly denied this.
And she goes on to point out that a main reason we expect leaders to stick to their positions regardless of changing facts is that Shrub has trained us to:
Why are we so ready to believe this sort of thing?

I put it down to eight years of George W. Bush. It's obvious that Bush would have had to be dragged kicking and screaming away from Iraq... The only thing that could possibly get him out of Iraq is a timetable with the force of law, and even that might not have worked.

But most people are not like that. And that's a very good thing: the range of policies that you can adopt when you have even the most minimal trust in the person who will execute them is much larger than the range you can use when that person is Bush.... [W]e can't afford to give Bush any flexibility at all, since experience shows that he will abuse it. That's a real sacrifice.

I suspect that after seven long years of Bush, some of us are reacting to all politicians as though we couldn't trust them any more than we can trust him...[W]hen [Obama] says that he plans to refine his plans on talking to commanders on the ground, it's not obvious that that means reconsidering the entire idea of withdrawal.

This matters. Our failure to give our candidates this much space is, I think, the only reason why the claim that you will withdraw in 16 months (or whatever), no matter what, seems to anyone like a good thing for a candidate to say. ... That would just be obvious, the way it would be obvious that your surgeon ought to be able to adjust his plans once he opens you up.

There's more, as well... The whole post is really worth reading.

[h/t: Andrew Sullivan]

I take it back

Remember when I said here I agreed with Krauthammer, at least in broad outline? I take it back. His latest dribbling tries to argue that there is, or soon will be, essentially no difference in position between Obama and McCain on the Iraq question:

Two weeks ago, I predicted that by Election Day Obama will have erased all meaningful differences with McCain on withdrawal from Iraq. I underestimated Obama's cynicism. He will make the move much sooner. He will use his upcoming Iraq trip to finally acknowledge the remarkable improvements on the ground and to formally abandon his primary season commitment to a fixed 16-month timetable for removal of all combat troops.

The shift has already begun. Yesterday, he said that his "original position" on withdrawal has always been that "we've got to make sure that our troops are safe and that Iraq is stable." And that "when I go to Iraq . . . I'll have more information and will continue to refine my policies."

He hasn't even gone to Iraq and the flip is almost complete. All that's left to say is that the 16-month time frame remains his goal but that he will, of course, take into account the situation on the ground and the recommendation of his generals in deciding whether the withdrawal is to occur later or even sooner.

Done.

Well, let's see: McCain has said staying in Iraq ten years, a hundred years, a thousand years, is fine. That when the troops come home "isn't important." That we have to stay until they're not fighting us any more, at which point we can stay as long as we want to. Obama has said the goal is be out in 16 months, but events on the ground may change that; progress so far is real but fragile, and an out-by-next-week rush could cause another paroxysm of American-produced chaos.

Someone needs to draw a picture with very simple diagrams, and use short, simple words, to help Mr Krauthammer understand that One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other.

Jesse Helms is dead

I am told that one should not speak ill of the dead.

Therefore, I have nothing to say.

Followup to Hitchens

A comment on the Hitchens essay as a literary work here. Also, a large discussion about Hitchens, does-it-work-or-not, and farther down in the comment thread some of the usual degeneration into namecalling that always happens on teh interwebz, here.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

'Believe me, it's torture'

Christopher Hitchens, vocal supporter of the Iraq war, certainly no bleeding-heart liberal, on being waterboarded.

This article and video should be required reading for everyone.

Why is this blogger surprised?

Andrew Sullivan is amazed at the thunderous silence from right-wing blogs on the news that the Bush regime knowingly copied torture techniques from the Chinese Communists:

It's an astonishing story - especially for any anti-Communist conservative who fought the good fight during the Cold War. But they won't mention it. I guess when a Republican administration copies communists, conservative writers need to copy Stalinists.
Hmmm... Would Stalinists ignore it, or denounce it? I'm not sure about the historical precedent here... But really, a lack of reaction shouldn't be surprising. The evidence is pretty solid, so it can't be spun away.

But the right has so committed itself to the idea that The Leader Can Do No Wrong (as long as he's a Republican) that they can't admit any mistake or weakness on the Leader's part. And admitting that they may have been mistaken about that leader? Even worse, because that would be "flip-flopping." Because, of course, the strength of your convictions is shown in how firmly you hold on to them, in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Or something.

It's disappointing. And depressing. But not surprising.

Obvious headline of the day

From CNN.com:



Really, I don't know what else to say.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

David Brody Embarasses Himself. Again.

Shorter version: Obama can't really be Christian! He supports teh gayz!

what he said, too!

Markos nails it, as well.

Ultimately, he's currently saying that he doesn't need people like me to win this thing, and he's right. He doesn't. If they've got polling or whatnot that says that this is his best path to victory, so much the better. I want him to win big. But when the Obama campaign makes those calculations, they have to realize that they're going to necessarily lose some intensity of support. It's not all upside. And for me, that is reflected in a lack of interest in making that contribution.

That's it. No need to freak out. It is what it is. Others will happily pick up the slack. We're headed toward a massive Democratic wave, and what I decide to do with my money means next to nothing, no matter how much hyperventilating may happen on this site's comments and diaries about it all.

And if for some crazy hard-to-see reason my money actually is important to the Obama campaign, then they can adjust their behavior to get it.


Yeah, what he said!

Greenwald has a must-read post on Obama's shifting positions and why they're unnecessary and counterproductive. Yes, winning is important. But how you win is also important.

More theistic special pleading

There's an interview up at Salon that starts off well enough, from a seemingly-intelligent person, that veers off into mush about halfway through.

The interviewee, Karl Giberson, has a new book out called "Saving Darwin: How to be a Christian and Believe in Evolution." I should note as an aside that evolution isn't really something that requires belief in the same way that religious dogma does... but given the current culture-wars climate, that's often the way it's spun. Giberson, by the way, is a professor of physics... at a Nazarene college. So that probably explains a lot about where he's coming from.

The promising beginning:

Why does Darwin need to be saved?

He has been vilified in American evangelical culture and even more broadly than that. Yet his important contribution to science reaches into theology and religion....

Why do misconceptions about Darwin persist?

Because in the latter part of the 20th century, evolution became identified with negative social agendas, and some very effective polemicists like Henry Morris and Ken Ham convinced people that evolution was responsible for the breakdown of the family and drug abuse and all manners of evil... In their eyes, Darwinism destroyed belief in God the creator.

Darwinism became associated with repugnant beliefs like Nazism and eugenics. But...evolution doesn't make judgments, it merely describes.

Right. There's an important distinction between a theory that tells us the way the world is and a theory that tells us the way it ought to be.... Conservatives don't want homosexuality to be perceived as something natural because that would force them to reevaluate the way we treat it from a moral perspective....

Aren't some people threatened by evolution because they can't reconcile biblical literalism, or "young-earth" creationism, with the fact that the earth is not 10,000 years old but billions?

Yes, but young-earth theory is an interpretation of Genesis that requires that you bring a certain set of suspect assumptions to the text. The early chapters of Genesis do not read like history.... They have a different sort of character to them. People who read Hebrew and understand the ancient Near Eastern worldview, and the cosmology that informed it, have given us ample reasons why you would not read Genesis that way, even if you weren't worried about reconciling it with a billion-year-old planet.

Yet Americans do.... You write that the strength of creationism in the U.S. "has more to do with American culture than biology or Christian theology." What is it about our culture that has led to creationism's popularity?

In short, intellectual laziness. We're not prepared to do the hard work to make our culture more sophisticated....

Many Christians insist the Bible is the literal word of God.

Yes, that's widespread and again it's because of a certain lack of sophistication from a literary point of view. Many people translate "the word of God" into the "words of God." They don't recognize that when you talk theologically about the Bible being the word of God, you mean that it contains an important message.... But it's a distortion to say the Bible contains the words of God as if God had dictated these things....We can't just pull all of this into the 20th century as if it was just recently written down by God for our benefit.

So far, we're discussing religion as a historical phenomenon. And I'd tend to agree with much of what he says. When you take the King James version as the ultimate correct version, believing that God dictated it to a secretary and ignore issues of translation (the oldest versions of the gospels, the versions in Aramaic and Hebrew, describe Mary as "a young woman," not necessarily a virgin, to take just one example), then you get all sorts of screwy interpretations. People understood the world much differently 3000 years ago than we do today; the scriptures aren't written as literal history, they weren't intended to be an objective record of facts, etc.

Notice that he's bringing the tools of modern scholarship to bear on problems of authorship, translation, intention of the authors, etc.

He also has little time for creationists or so-called "Intelligent Design:"
I don't think the intelligent design movement does anything useful. Its poster children for God's intervention are things like the clotting of blood or the propeller on the back of a bacterium. These aren't interesting features of the world, and the fact that they seem complicated and hard to explain through evolution doesn't suggest for one second that we ought to invoke the supernatural finger of God.
And actually, they're not as hard to explain as some think. The Dover trial demonstrated that.

Unfortunately, having laid down the law and said we don't need to invoke God to explain things, he then starts laying the groundwork to do precisely that:
I think there's a reckless extrapolation from what we know about evolution to an all-encompassing materialism. Evolution has so much of its data missing in history that to look at the whole thing and say we know for sure that despite all the stuff we can't find, and have never seen, has purely naturalistic causes -- and we know this with such certainty that we insist the knowledgeable buy into this idea -- goes way too far.
Pay attention, now. The ID crowd makes a mistake in invoking God to explain complicated things because it's completely unnecessary. BUT, because we don't know soooo much stuff, we CAN'T say it's all materialist. There MUST be a magic sky-fairy behind it all somewhere!

Is that what he's really saying? After all, he goes on to say, we can't use the gaps to argue God (even though he just did):
But I think the difference is that we need to know more than we know to make certain claims. And I would claim that what we know historically about the closing of these gaps suggests that we are always going to be able to close them. That we have gaps now in our understanding of how the blood clotting mechanism arose doesn't puzzle me at all. I just say, OK, there's more work to do.
So... we don't need to invoke God. But we do. Isn't that a contradiction? Why, yes. Yes, it is.

But you reject the idea that God tinkers and has his hand in day-to-day processes, so how do nature and God interact?

That's the tough question. You should rewind the tape and erase the question because I don't really have a good answer....
He tries at one, though. You see, we're different:
We don't know how we interact with the world. Somehow you got it into your head that you were going to call and talk to me about this book. Some kind of vague intention, purposeful agenda emerged in your mind, and it got translated into a whole set of actions, and now we're talking on the phone. We don't understand that.
[sigh] Yes, we're back to the ghost in the machine argument. He then goes completely off the rails:
Consciousness is a very deep mystery. All of our models say consciousness shouldn't be possible, that it should just be atoms and molecules in your brain randomly doing things. Nothing that we've developed for a model of how human intentionality works makes sense of our own experience of the world.
Actually, the models we have say more than that. Are there parts of it we don't understand? Yes. But before, we said we were sure the gaps would be filled in. There's work to be done. But now, suddenly, nope, it doesn't make sense, it can't make sense, we know now that we can never ever figure it out without invoking invisible sky-men.

How do we know there isn't some similar mechanism by which God interacts with the world, that God can be understood as a spirit, that God is more like consciousness than a material object?
This would get a failing mark in a freshman-year intro-to-philosophy course. "How do we know it isn't there?" is MUCH different from saying "there it is." But he doesn't see that, apparently. He's posed a rhetorical question, noted the absence of a soundbite answer, and declares himself the winner of the debate; said debate only existing in his own mind in the first place. He's the one postulating the existence of God; he has the burden of proof. Saying "You can't prove there isn't one" is no proof at all.
So I'd say to Dawkins, until you explain to me how human beings interact with the world, don't tell me that God couldn't interact with the world in the same way we do.
This is incomprehensible. He obviously means something by "interact with the world" that goes beyond things like eating, sleeping, thinking, observing, enjoying, having families, etc. What, precisely, does he mean? He never says. I wonder if even he knows. Or maybe he does mean just that... Again, falling back on consciousness as some magic property that can't be explained materialistically, because, well, it just can't, because he said so.

Now, God doesn't have to step in to make consciousness occur, but something that we don't understand at all is occurring. I don't think it's supernatural. I think that someday we may understand this. There's something going on that when the neuronal networks reach a certain level of complexity, something appears that maybe is brand-new and that is consciousness. But that's just a guess about how we'll eventually be talking about that phenomenon.
No, I guess that's not it. Consciousness can be a natural phenomenon after all. So what are we left with?

You criticize the creationists for questioning the gaps in the fossil record and call it a "fool's errand" because over time, scientists usually find evidence that fills these gaps in. But aren't you engaging in the same sort of intellectual maneuver, by saying that because there are some aspects of nature and evolution that we don't understand, therefore God exists?

Right. That's an extremely fair criticism.... You're absolutely right.
I think we will never have some sort of model that says, "OK, here's how God gets his agenda across in the natural order. Here's how the will of God gets realized in nature -- we won't ever have that. But we might have insights into possibilities about how we could think about that. These insights will be rich enough that they will accommodate religious experience and some of the things that have long been a part of religion.

Okay...so... we won't have a model that directly includes God. But we may have insights into possibilities about how we might have models that include God. And those insights about possibilities will include God.

Okay, then. God as a hypothetical counterfactual. Maybe I'm in agreement after all.

But you can see why people like Dawkins and Dennett say that science seems to be functioning perfectly well on its own and we don't need to fall back on an explanation of God?

Yes, absolutely. And that has never been the way that people come to God.
Okay, so now we're back to non-counterfactual. God is now being accepted axiomatically. On what basis? None that's presented... though jumping back up a little, we find this:
But I believe in God, I believe God is personal and that God exists and cares about the created order. I think it's a very reasonable belief that God interacts with creation and that experiences people have of interacting with God are profound and deeply meaningful.
Well, you believe it. Because....? Oh, right. When we're talking about magic sky-fairies, no proof is needed, simply saying "I believe it and I think it's reasonable" is all that's necessary. Actually stating those reasons isn't.
People are far more likely to have certain experiences that overwhelm them and don't seem like conclusions of rational arguments, but seem like a kind of momentary contact with something genuinely transcendent. You say there's something more to the world than the atoms and molecules. Out of that experience comes a religious commitment. And that has characterized human experience forever.
And, once again, the feelings of the heart trump any sort of evidence or experience. People do experience altered states of consciousness, and sometimes feel the subjective experience of merging with something much larger than themselves; they often interpret this experience in religious terms. BUT. Those states are associated with certain specific electrical states in the limbic system of the brain. The subjective FEELING of being Touched By An Angel doesn't mean there's anything actually there. We're back to special pleading (all the rules of logic and evidence should be held in abeyance when we're talking about my beliefs) and the fallacy of crowds (lots of people have these experiences, so they must be right, even though many many more people DON'T have those experiences or anything coming close to them).

I used to think Dawkins went too far, that he was intemperate and exaggerating. But I'm beginning to think he got it right. Religion really does poison everything it touches. If I were to say I believed the moon was made of green cheese, I may be asked why I believe that. In response to that question, I would be expected to produce facts and reasons why.

But if we're talking about religious belief, saying "I believe it" is supposed to settle the question. Reasons can be incoherent, facts can be cherry-picked and inconvenient facts ignored. Because, well, religion is just different, and that's all there is to it.

Feh.

Monday, June 30, 2008

"Manners," Microsoft style

Microsoft has filed a patent on something euphemistically called "digital manners," which will restrict the behavior of mobile devices in areas where it's being deployed. No more annoying cell phone calls in the middle of a movie! No more worries about some creep with a camera phone at the gym locker room! What could possibly go wrong?

Of course, it also means your cell phone will politely refuse to take a picture at a concert. Or during a police raid. Or your iPod will politely refuse to transfer music to or from any computer other than yours.

But we're not supposed to notice that. Does anyone really think end users will be able to set "manners" policies? Or that it won't be implemented for the convenience of the media companies?

Friday, June 27, 2008

Weakest rationale ever

The usually-thought-provoking Peggy Noonan has a piece up that baffles me a bit. Or maybe it's just the standard media love affair with their BFF McCain, who does a good enough job of schmoozing reporters that they're very reluctant to ask him tough questions. But in this particular mash note, Peggy seems to be swooning for what she sees as the "real" McCain, cut-up and jokester:

Mr. McCain had taken the lead in the primaries and had gone from being "one of the most disruptive forces in his party" to someone playing it safe. In an airplane interview he said things like, "There is a process in place that will formalize the methodology." Then he couldn't help it, he became McCain:

"[He] volunteered that Brooke Buchanan, his spokeswoman who was seated nearby and rolling her eyes, 'has a lot of her money hidden in the Cayman Islands' and that she earned it by 'dealing drugs.' Previously, Mr. McCain had identified Ms. Buchanan as 'Pat Buchanan's illegitimate daughter,' 'bipolar,' 'a drunk,' 'someone with a lot of boyfriends,' and 'just out of Betty Ford.'"

That's my boy. That's the McCain his friends love, McCain unplugged. The fall will be dead serious. At this point why not be himself, be human? Let him refind his inner rebel, the famous irreverent maverick, let the tiger out of the cage.
Sure. That's just what we need. A dose of towel-snapping frat-boy humor. Because, you know, we haven't had anything like that in a long time. And a President who cracks jokes with the press corps, well, so what if he doesn't answer inconvenient questions? He gave me a nickname!

Peggy's usually sharper than this. But this column shows why she's part of the problem.

Addendum: There is one thing Peggy gets spot-on:
The way it used to be is you ran and lost and either disappeared or pitched in. Mrs. Clinton continues making Mr. Obama look the dauphin to her embittered and domineering queen.

Hillary steps up

After all my snark about Her Hillaryness, fairness compels me to recognize that she's taking action, right from the start, and supporting the presumptive nominee.

Perhaps I misjudged the depth of her calculation. Perhaps she's doing it for the most cynical motives. I don't really care... She's doing the right thing.

Current rating

For some reason, though all I've been talking about is politics lately, this blog is currently rated:
OnePlusYou Quizzes and Widgets

Apparently I used the word "hurt"... Um, still need to work on the algorithm a little...

Double-Talk Express, part 27...

Word got out a couple of days ago that McCain had met (off the record, of course) with the Log Cabin Republicans... well not really met with them, just sort of stopped by while they were meeting.. no, met with them, but privately, not on his schedule, not so anyone would find out about it. So naturally, now he has to reassure the base that he really does hate teh gayz as much as they do and supports a federal amendment after all, even after saying he didn't, because he stands by his principles, and his principles tell him to do whatever the base wants!

"Straight Talk," my ass...

It never stops, does it?

And yet again still more agonizing over whether Obama has suffered enough for his sin of beating Her Hillaryness...

Obama hailed his former rival and her backers. "I recognize that this room shared the same passion that a roomful of my supporters would show. I do not expect that passion to be transferred. Senator Clinton is unique, and your relationships with her are unique." But he added: "Senator Clinton and I at our core agree deeply that this country needs to change."
Really, there are a few bits that are almost surreal...
He also sought to lead the move to unite by example, announcing that he had personally written a check for $2,300, the maximum he can give, to help retire Clinton's more than $20 million in campaign debt and that he had urged his biggest supporters to follow suit.
Well, that's great, and I suppose a relatively low-cost way of defusing the situation a bit, but really.... After Kerry beat Howard Dean in the primaries, Kerry didn't do much to help Dean retire his debt. Nor did he rush over to hire many Dean staffers. No one thought this was odd or rude or inconsiderate... Why should he have been expected to in the first place? BUT, as usual, the Clintons play by their own special rules.

At one point, an attendee told Obama that if he wanted to be seen as a true leader, he needed acknowledge that sexism had played a role in the demise of Clinton's campaign. Obama agreed and said that the issue should be addressed.
Did it play a role? Perhaps. It was definitely there. But did it ultimately make the difference? If not for sexism, would she have won? Not likely. Given the complete lack of planning for anything after Super Tuesday, the bad advice she ran with, the out of control spending... It was a botched campaign. And any male candidate who got teary-eyed the night before a big primary would NOT have received a boost from it... so it's not like Hillary wasn't ready to take advantage of sexism when it worked in her favor.

Obama and Clinton will travel to the town of Unity, N.H. -- which gave each candidate 107 votes in its January primary -- this morning for their first public appearance together.
Oh, how precious... >gag< >choke<
Some former Clinton advisers expressed irritation that Obama seems to believe that he can win the election without them or her supporters.
That's probably because he can. Sorry about reality being irritating and all, but this is politics, not group therapy.

The former president has told acquaintances that he is still upset by the tone of the campaign, particularly the way the media covered it.
Yes, that awful nasty media that kept playing his words over and over again, even when it wasn't convenient. Actually, an article I read yesterday may have been onto something: that Bill didn't successfully navigate the transition from presidential candidate (which he knew how to be) to presidential candidate's spouse, which he's never been before, and has much different expectations. I'm not entirely convinced, but there may be some of that in play.

"Everyone has checked their egos at the door."
A sentiment directly contradicted by several paragraphs directly above it.

My Continuing Political Education

I actually find myself agreeing with Charles Krauthammer, in broad outline if not in all the details. The last week or so has been educational, if painful, as Obama reversed his position on FISA and now agrees that the government should have vastly expanded wiretapping powers and telecom companies should be granted retroactive immunity (isn't amnesty a better term?) for illegally turning over private customer information without a warrant. After promising to filibuster any such proposal. And worse, Barack's statement explaining his new position starts right out with the rhetoric of fear, about how dangerous the world is and we should all be afraid. Greenwald's got all this documented; here's a good starting point.

I thought Obama was about change, not about more of the same be-very-afraid, we-have-to-take-away-freedom-to-protect-liberty rhetoric we've been hearing from the GOP for years.

I shouldn't have been surprised; not really. After all, he is, at the end of the day, a politician. One who came out of Chicago, where politics is a full-contact sport. And one who has to run to the center. But DAMMIT, in an election where 80% of the country thinks we're on the wrong track as a nation, giving the Republicans 90% of what they want is NOT necessary!

Is he still a better candidate than McCain? Yes. Am I going to vote for him? Probably. Am I going to contribute, to enthusiastically talk him up, to go the extra mile? Um, that's a bit more problematic.

There's an article up at Slate today about Obama's strategy to minimize evangelical opposition to him. It recognizes he probably can't get their votes, but he can reduce the likelihood they'll organize against him as a threat to the republic.

It works the other way, as well. He hasn't lost my vote, yet. But he's lost a lot of my respect, and some of my trust, and a lot of my enthusiasm. "Better than McCain" isn't much of a rallying cry.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Stereotypes for Yuks and Laffs

Sarah Bird has a supposedly-amusing piece up at Salon about how she's been coming to grips with the fact that her son's not gay:

I guess I've suspected the worst for a long time. Certainly the signs were there from a fairly young age: He invariably chose "Power Rangers" over joining me in marathon viewings of the work of Stephen Sondheim. He preferred to thickly carpet his bedroom floor with castoff clothing rather than use the color-coded, padded hangers I put in his closet. Worst of all, he evinced a disturbing interest in Grace's bare, bony chest rather than concentrating on absorbing Will's snappy -- yet ultimately supportive -- patter. If he didn't pay attention, who would I have to call me "girlfriend" in my old age? How would I keep tabs on Britney, Carrie Underwood and that creepy kid from "High School Musical" without my very own Rex Reed 2.0?
It goes on like that, for far too long.

In Bird's world, you see, gay men don't exist as men. Nor as independent beings, apparently. Rather, they're a Will-and-Grace stereotype (she says flat-out, that's the sort of gay man she wants her son to be): Someone who exists for the sole purpose of meeting the emotional needs of lonely middle-class women in a non-threatening way.
Before you write those ALL-CAP LETTERS WITH LOTS OF EXCLAMATION POINTS!!!!! informing me that you are a proud, stereotype-defying homosexual stevedore, soccer hooligan, whatever, that you are unabashedly clueless about fashion, décor and hygiene, let me just say, if that is you: Don't apply to be my gay son. I already own that model. No, please, submit a résumé only if you are an old-school homosexual with all the traditional old-school homosexual values and interests. Particularly if those interests include knowing how to add fullness to thinning, middle-aged hair.
And in fact, when a friend of hers calls her on her shit, she laughs it off:
Rudy is a brilliant, handsome (and single, he would like me to add) theater director here in Austin, and he is also one of the leading candidates to be my gay son. "You get to have the closeness that you imagine you would have from having a gay son without any of the, you know, finding your son's gay porn that he downloaded from the Internet. The joke is that you can get all the fashion and musical theater and closeness without homosexuality, and that joke is on me and mine. We have to deal with a lot of 'Can't you just, you know, help me pick out my clothes without, you know, kissing in front of me or hitting on my brother?'"

Excellent point. This is exactly the kind of sensitive, informed, insightful comment I'd expect from my gay son. Thank you, Rudy, I will be moving your application to the top of the pile tout de suite. As for what goes on in my grown child's bedroom? Not my business. Unless, however, it's to confer with me about whether frosty blue and chocolate brown is a color combination for the ages. Or if that expensive duvet and sham set I'm contemplating will be dated faster than you can say "teal" and "mauve."
She doesn't want a gay son. She wants a girlfriend. And OF COURSE, gay men are eminently suited to be girlfriends, and should be FLATTERED that she feels that way about them!

As the earlier quote makes clear, she really doesn't get it. She can't see beyond her world of straight privilege; rather, she assumes that being her girlfriend is such a privilege that any gay man--well, not any gay man, but the right kind of gay man--would be happy to serve that role. And wouldn't kiss in front of her or any of that icky stuff--the only time they'd talk about boyfriends, apparently, would be over mimosas while commiserating about what pigs men are.

Gay man as fashion accessory.

The pathetic thing is that she thinks this is all amusing. That demeaning and infantilizing gay men is something that, well, some of them are going to get hissy and send irate emails with LOTS OF CAPITALS AND EXCLAMATION POINTS about. (Aren't they cute when they stomp their little feet?) But nothing there's any real reason to be upset about. Their anger, their frustration, their feeling insulted and put down--well it's certainly not legitimate. But you know how those queens are, someone's always getting pissy about something. And shouldn't they be grateful that they're being allowed to participate in her world at all? The price is only following a stereotyped role, or be kicked out.

I suppose by posting this, I've burned any bridge I may ever have had into being any part of her smug, self-satisfied world.

I've never enjoyed a bonfire more.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Politics at the Justice Department? Say it isn't so!

In a report that surprises no one, the inspector general at the Department of Political Retribution Justice has found that politics played a part in selecting candidates for their honors and summer internship programs, with qualified candidates being ruled out because they had past connections with Democratic causes.

Why should anyone be shocked by this? The Bush II Regime has made it clear from the beginning that in their view, the "unitary executive" trumps everything, and that government and politics are inseparable, that the mechanics of government are rightfully put to use by the political party in power. Of course, that wasn't their position when Democrats were in charge. Like John Yoo criticizing Bill Clinton for making excessive claims of executive power, claims that "undermine notions of democratic accountability and respect for the rule of law," then giving Bush legal cover to shred the Constitution, because, of course, when a Republican does it, it's fine.

Counting the days until the thugs are out, scared of how much damage they can still do....

Friday, June 13, 2008

Now it's their ox that's being gored

China has a history of taking a, well, somewhat casual approach to intellectual-property law, particularly when it comes to counterfeit foreign goods. Sometimes they're so obviously fake as to be laughable (you'll occasionally see a hilariously-mangled brand turn up on Engrish.com), sometimes they're actually rather good.

There's nothing new in this, of course. The United States didn't recognize any foreign copyrights or patents while it was a developing economy. It wasn't until we had more to gain by enforcing our own than by ignoring everyone else's that "intellectual property" became a serious concern. The Chinese are developing their economy, and copyrights, an artificial, government-imposed monopoly, are economically inefficient.

Until, of course, there's more profit to be made by enforcing it than ignoring it.

For years, China has been known as the leading exporter of fake goods, from Louis Vuitton handbags and Patek Philippe watches to auto and jet engine parts. The underground economy, which according to U.S. trade officials costs American companies $3 billion to $4 billion annually, has been allowed to flourish by a Chinese government that seldom prosecutes intellectual property violations.

But the Olympics have mobilized China's piracy police like never before. Beijing, the host city, stands to receive up to 15 percent of all revenue from Olympic merchandise, a figure expected to easily top the $62 million raised in Athens four years ago. Aside from the mascots, China is also reportedly collecting up to $120 million each from Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Adidas and other companies that have qualified as the highest-level Olympic sponsors.

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With the world's gaze on China in the run-up to the Aug. 8-24 Games, officials have moved to make sure counterfeit goods don't reflect poorly on the festivities. Fake Adidas clothing that was widely available at popular Beijing markets a year ago is now hard to find.

Officially, of course, it's about protecting China's image and putting their best foot forward for the Games. Unofficially?
"They have moved some of the market more underground than they have before, but that hasn't stopped the activity," said Marc S. Ganis, chief executive of Chicago-based Sportscorp Ltd., a sports marketing firm. "It proves that China can do something about the problem when its own interests are aligned with the crackdown. . . . The reality is, just like in the U.S., people are going to do what they're going to do, which is make money."
And with the government getting its cut of royalty payments, it's suddenly in the government's interest to enforce the laws.

It's also nice to see that in some ways, the Chinese government isn't that different from our own:
"The Chinese government usually only manages during a crisis," [an import-export trader] said. "When things reach a peak and they have to deal with it, they will."

If you ignore the bad news, everything's fine.

Washington Post:

The inflation rate shot up in May at the fastest pace in six months, pushed higher by soaring costs for gasoline and other types of energy.
But don't worry, it's not that bad! Really!
Core inflation, however, which excludes energy and food, edged up a more moderate 0.2 percent in May. That increase was right in line with expectations and should help relieve worries that the big increases in food and energy could be breaking through to more widespread inflation.
See? Once you exclude unnecessary luxury items like food and gasoline, it looks much better! And it's not like those are things regular people ever buy... And really, if you can't cut a few unnecessary luxuries out of your household budget during a nonrecession, you're just not trying.

I understand excluding the volatile components if there's been a one-time event... When Katrina shut down Gulf Coast refining, there was a spike in gas prices but everything else was pretty much unaffected. Likewise, it helps to look at the less-volatile components if we're swerving back and forth between "OH NOES THE SKY IS FALLING" and "Nothing to worry about, things are great, in fact some more inflation wouldn't hurt."

But to pretend that we can just exclude things that are rising consistently, repeatedly, and pervasively, for reasons having much more to do with market fundamentals than random fluctuations, is disingenuous at best and useless otherwise.

And businesses are getting squeezed by fuel costs, meaning anything that has to be shipped by truck is going to go up. Airline tickets are already going up (same story), and the Wall Street Journal reports that some businesses are no longer outsourcing, but returning production to the US because of transportation costs. The only reason they haven't raised prices is that the market won't bear it yet. The grocery business runs on razor-thin profit margins, so higher costs had to be passed along almost immediately. Higher-margin businesses have a little more breathing room, but not much, and they're running out of space. But hey, that's only if you actually, you know, need to eat.

Dismal science, indeed.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Of Gin, Gilligan's Island, and Wikipedia

Clay Shirky has an excellent essay up about the social capital of surplus time, and how we're just now figuring out what to do with it. I've had it bookmarked for a couple of days and have been meaning to comment, but events have conspired against that... In the meantime, go read it.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Quote of the day. Possibly the week.

One other word I must criticize in all these defenses of religion: imagination. I often hear that religion is all about using the imagination to see something beyond the literal and mundane, and imagination becomes a virtue in itself that is presented as something special to religion. It is not. It is also overrated. Imagination is essential, don't get me wrong; we need this kind of cognitive randomizer that pushes our thoughts beyond what we already know. However, one thing science has taught us is that our imagination is pathetic. The universe is more vast, more complex, and more surprising than anything our minds can conjure up. Imagination is not enough.

Here we sit in our comfortable little spot, snug and reassured that our butts are firmly planted. Imagination is the tool we use to reach out and fumble about and make guesses about our local neighborhood, and religion is the part that enshrines guesses as absolute knowledge and reassures us that the rest of the universe is just like our little niche.

Science is imagination equipped with grappling hooks. We toss them out, we snag new and interesting bits of our environment, and we use them to haul our butts out of those well-worn hollows to something new … and we anchor the lines so others so inclined may follow. Thus does the limited reach of paltry human imagination become a greater endeavor that explores farther and farther still, leaving behind the delusions of those incapable or unwilling to use their imagination as a tool to explore the world, rather than as a masturbation aid.

--P. Z. Myers


Link of the day

Biblical literalism or low IQ. Which Came First?

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Timothy Egan Nails It

...by pointing out that Hillary's vaunted win in WVA probably won't matter in the fall, as it's fairly solidly Republican and trending more so, as is Kentucky.

In Oregon, voters’ surveys show Obama essentially tied Clinton for the blue collar vote while running up a big victory.

And Oregon, unlike West Virginia and Kentucky, may actually be in play for the general election. Al Gore won it by barely 7,000 votes in 2000, a margin that went up to 60,000 votes in 2004. McCain’s advisers say he’s a perfect fit for the state – independent, somewhat maverick.

So, from a purely strategic point of view, the ability to win white blue-collar voters in an open-minded swing state is certainly more important than a solid red state. I would include Pennsylvania in that equation. Just weeks after all the talk of Obama’s problems in the Keystone state, most polls now show him beating McCain in the general election.

What happened in the last few weeks is that Appalachia, in a 24-7 media hothouse, skewed perception. We stared at it far too long, parsing it for meaning beyond its historic range and its hard prejudices.

What he said.


Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Quote of the day

I have a theory concerning committees. A committee may have different states, like water has gas, liquid or solid phases, depending on temperate and pressure. The same committee, depending on external circumstances of time and pressure will enter well-defined states that determine its effectiveness. If a committee works in a deliberate mode, where issues are freely discussed, objections heard, and consensus is sought, then the committee will make slow progress, but the decisions of the committee will collectively be smarter than its smartest member. However, if a committee refuses to deliberate and instead merely votes on things without discussion, then it will be as dumb as its dumbest members. Voting dulls the edge of expertise. But discussion among experts socializes that expertise. This should be obvious. If you put a bunch of smart people in a room and don't let them think or talk, then don't expect smart things to happen as if the mere exhalation of their breath brings forth improvements to the standard.

This is scary...

I actually find myself agreeing with Roland Martin, who can usually be counted on to present weak rationalizations for absurd ideas. But this time he's actually come to a "right" conclusion, i.e. one I agree with. And his reasoning is pretty much on target.

With everything that's going on in the world, the question of a flag lapel pin is about the weakest of all possible rationales... and of course, there's an incredible ridiculous double standard.

I've watched this debate reach the levels of absurdity this year because journalists and commentators have raised the question to Sen. Barack Obama, "Why don't you wear a flag lapel pin?"

I really got a kick out of that one during the ABC debate last month because not one person on stage -- Sens. Hillary Clinton and Obama, along with moderators Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos -- bothered to accessorize their attire with a flag lapel pin.

Sen. John McCain has been traveling the globe as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, and this former soldier often doesn't wear a flag lapel pin.

I wonder why John McCain hates America so much?

Those who will criticize me will say, "Well, Roland, if it's no big deal, then why not wear one?" And the reply is the same: "If it's no big deal, then why do you make it a big deal?"

Because, as he points out, that's what zealots do. They pick a small issue, declare it to be the side of all that is right and virtuous and true, and demand that everyone else conform to their narrow vision, ignoring everything else.

[I]f there are members of Congress who wear a flag lapel pin but refuse to shore up our borders, don't do enough to stop the flow of drugs into our neighborhoods, or don't help to eradicate the gaps between the haves and have nots, then are they truly fighting for the concerns of Americans, or playing on the emotions of people by what's on their lapel?


What he said.